Gold analysis today XAUUSD
2026-09-30 09:31 NY · session 09/30
Today’s summary
Computed session bias: BEARISH, confidence 62% (technical -0.51, quantitative +0.14).
Expected range today ≈ 97.73 (daily ATR14, 26th percentile of the last year → low volatility).
Price is in the PREMIUM (upper half of yesterday's range; in ICT methodology the zone associated with selling) zone.
Asian range: 4197.60 – 4219.70. Under the PO3 model it would be typical for London/NY to sweep one end of the Asian range (the high before a possible bearish expansion).
News to watch today: ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (USD, Medium); Core PCE Price Index m/m (USD, High); Final GDP q/q (USD, High); Final GDP Price Index q/q (USD, Medium); President Trump Speaks (USD, Medium).
See charts and entry plans in the tool →
Resistance
| 4,248.64 | R1, Round number, Unfilled bearish H1 FVG (09/27 21:00) |
| 4,265.67 | R2 |
| 4,278.40 | Prev. week low, Unfilled bearish H1 FVG (09/27 20:00) |
| 4,308.86 | Round number, Weekly open, Unfilled bearish H1 FVG (09/27 18:00), Unfilled bearish H1 FVG (09/25 16:00) |
| 4,351.60 | Liquidity: H1 swing high (BSL, 09/25 07:00) |
Support
| 4,219.17 | PDH (prev. day high), Asian range high, Liquidity: H1 swing high (BSL, 09/29 19:00) |
| 4,198.18 | Unfilled bullish H1 FVG (09/29 14:00), Pivot, Asian range low, Liquidity: H1 swing low (SSL, 09/30 01:00), Round number, Liquidity: H1 swing high (BSL, 09/28 08:00), NY midnight open (ICT) |
| 4,169.84 | S1, Unfilled bullish H1 FVG (09/29 01:00), Liquidity: H1 swing low (SSL, 09/29 13:00) |
| 4,146.47 | Liquidity: H1 swing low (SSL, 09/28 16:00), PDL (prev. day low), Round number |
| 4,119.87 | S2 |
Technical signals
- Long-term trend (daily EMA200): Price below the EMA200 (4337.65).
- Medium-term trend (EMA20 vs EMA50): EMA20 < EMA50: bearish medium-term structure.
- MACD momentum: MACD histogram negative and narrowing.
- Daily RSI(14): RSI 41.2: bearish momentum
- H1 structure (ICT): H1: mixed structure / range (range 4197.60 – 4234.00).
- Weekly open: Price below the weekly open (4308.80).
- Yesterday's close within its range: Yesterday closed at 96% of its range (buying strength).
Quantitative analysis
- Conditional probability (current regime): 55.7% up days (n=271) — Historical frequency of an up close the next day when price was in the same position relative to the EMA200 and the same RSI band.
- Wednesday seasonality: 55.3% up (6 years) — Historical bias by day of the week.
- 20-session momentum (z-score): -0.41 σ (-3.43%) — 20-session return normalised by volatility. Beyond ±2.5σ it is considered extreme (mean-reversion risk).
- Distance to EMA20 (in ATR): -1.15 ATR — More than 2.5 ATR away from the average signals overextension.
Automatic calculation from market data that may be delayed. Educational material: not a signal or a buy or sell recommendation.
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