USD/JPY analysis today USDJPY
2026-09-30 09:31 NY · session 09/30
Today’s summary
Computed session bias: BEARISH, confidence 61% (technical -0.36, quantitative -0.04).
Expected range today ≈ 1.271 (daily ATR14, 63th percentile of the last year → normal volatility).
Price is in the DISCOUNT (lower half of yesterday's range; in ICT methodology the zone associated with buying) zone.
Asian range: 156.370 – 157.461. Under the PO3 model it would be typical for London/NY to sweep one end of the Asian range (the high before a possible bearish expansion).
News to watch today: ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (USD, Medium); Core PCE Price Index m/m (USD, High); Final GDP q/q (USD, High); Final GDP Price Index q/q (USD, Medium); President Trump Speaks (USD, Medium).
See charts and entry plans in the tool →
Resistance
| 156.950 | NY midnight open (ICT), S1, PDL (prev. day low), Liquidity: H1 swing low (SSL, 09/29 08:00), Round number |
| 157.237 | Liquidity: H1 swing low (SSL, 09/29 14:00), Unfilled bearish H1 FVG (09/29 20:00), Pivot |
| 157.541 | Asian range high, Liquidity: H1 swing high (BSL, 09/29 19:00), Round number, Weekly open, R1 |
| 157.709 | Liquidity: H1 swing high (BSL, 09/29 11:00), PDH (prev. day high), Liquidity: H1 swing high (BSL, 09/29 06:00) |
| 158.059 | R2 |
Support
| 156.574 | Prev. week low, S2 |
| 156.413 | Asian range low, Liquidity: H1 swing low (SSL, 09/29 22:00), Round number |
| 156.000 | Round number |
Technical signals
- Long-term trend (daily EMA200): Price below the EMA200 (157.644).
- Medium-term trend (EMA20 vs EMA50): EMA20 < EMA50: bearish medium-term structure.
- MACD momentum: MACD histogram positive and narrowing.
- Daily RSI(14): RSI 47.6: neutral
- H1 structure (ICT): H1: mixed structure / range (range 156.646 – 157.259).
- Weekly open: Price below the weekly open (157.621).
- Yesterday's close within its range: Yesterday closed at 39% of its range (indecision).
Quantitative analysis
- Conditional probability (current regime): 48.6% up days (n=327) — Historical frequency of an up close the next day when price was in the same position relative to the EMA200 and the same RSI band.
- Wednesday seasonality: 53.8% up (6 years) — Historical bias by day of the week.
- 20-session momentum (z-score): -0.53 σ (-1.17%) — 20-session return normalised by volatility. Beyond ±2.5σ it is considered extreme (mean-reversion risk).
- Distance to EMA20 (in ATR): -0.17 ATR — More than 2.5 ATR away from the average signals overextension.
Automatic calculation from market data that may be delayed. Educational material: not a signal or a buy or sell recommendation.
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