USD/CHF analysis today USDCHF
2026-09-30 09:31 NY · session 09/30
Today’s summary
Computed session bias: BULLISH, confidence 68% (technical +0.43, quantitative +0.30).
Expected range today ≈ 0.00484 (daily ATR14, 0th percentile of the last year → low volatility).
Price is in the DISCOUNT (lower half of yesterday's range; in ICT methodology the zone associated with buying) zone.
Asian range: 0.83305 – 0.83472. Under the PO3 model it would be typical for London/NY to sweep one end of the Asian range (the low before a possible bullish expansion).
News to watch today: ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (USD, Medium); Core PCE Price Index m/m (USD, High); Final GDP q/q (USD, High); Final GDP Price Index q/q (USD, Medium); President Trump Speaks (USD, Medium).
See charts and entry plans in the tool →
Resistance
| 0.83470 | NY midnight open (ICT), Asian range high, Liquidity: H1 swing high (BSL, 09/30 00:00), Unfilled bearish H1 FVG (09/29 14:00), Round number |
| 0.83578 | R1, PDH (prev. day high), Liquidity: H1 swing high (BSL, 09/29 12:00), Liquidity: H1 swing high (BSL, 09/29 13:00) |
| 0.83817 | R2 |
| 0.84000 | Round number |
Support
| 0.83290 | Liquidity: H1 swing low (SSL, 09/29 17:00), Liquidity: H1 swing low (SSL, 09/29 08:00), Asian range low, Pivot |
| 0.83069 | Liquidity: H1 swing low (SSL, 09/28 17:00), S1, PDL (prev. day low) |
| 0.82983 | Weekly open, Prev. week high, Round number |
| 0.82903 | Unfilled bullish H1 FVG (09/25 16:00), Unfilled bullish H1 FVG (09/27 19:00) |
| 0.82835 | S2 |
Technical signals
- Long-term trend (daily EMA200): Price above the EMA200 (0.80423).
- Medium-term trend (EMA20 vs EMA50): EMA20 > EMA50: bullish medium-term structure.
- MACD momentum: MACD histogram positive and narrowing.
- Daily RSI(14): RSI 72.9: overbought, pullback risk
- H1 structure (ICT): H1: mixed structure / range (range 0.83305 – 0.83472).
- Weekly open: Price above the weekly open (0.82969).
- Yesterday's close within its range: Yesterday closed at 42% of its range (indecision).
Quantitative analysis
- Conditional probability (current regime): 55.1% up days (n=98) — Historical frequency of an up close the next day when price was in the same position relative to the EMA200 and the same RSI band.
- Wednesday seasonality: 52.3% up (6 years) — Historical bias by day of the week.
- 20-session momentum (z-score): +1.27 σ (+2.57%) — 20-session return normalised by volatility. Beyond ±2.5σ it is considered extreme (mean-reversion risk).
- Distance to EMA20 (in ATR): +2.34 ATR — More than 2.5 ATR away from the average signals overextension.
Automatic calculation from market data that may be delayed. Educational material: not a signal or a buy or sell recommendation.
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