EUR/JPY analysis today EURJPY
2026-09-30 12:12 NY · session 09/30
Today’s summary
Computed session bias: BEARISH, confidence 67% (technical -0.47, quantitative -0.17).
Expected range today ≈ 1.238 (daily ATR14, 67th percentile of the last year → normal volatility).
Price is in the DISCOUNT (lower half of yesterday's range; in ICT methodology the zone associated with buying) zone.
Asian range: 177.328 – 178.555. Under the PO3 model it would be typical for London/NY to sweep one end of the Asian range (the high before a possible bearish expansion).
News to watch today: German Prelim CPI m/m (EUR, Medium); ECB President Lagarde Speaks (EUR, Medium).
See charts and entry plans in the tool →
Resistance
| 178.330 | Unfilled bullish H1 FVG (09/30 10:00) |
| 178.535 | Round number, Pivot, Asian range high, Liquidity: H1 swing high (BSL, 09/29 19:00) |
| 179.031 | Prev. week low, R1, Round number, Liquidity: H1 swing high (BSL, 09/28 11:00), PDH (prev. day high), Liquidity: H1 swing high (BSL, 09/28 21:00) |
| 179.368 | Weekly open, Unfilled bearish H1 FVG (09/28 02:00) |
| 179.548 | R2 |
Support
| 178.101 | Round number, PDL (prev. day low), Liquidity: H1 swing low (SSL, 09/29 13:00), Liquidity: H1 swing low (SSL, 09/28 04:00) |
| 177.847 | NY midnight open (ICT), Unfilled bullish H1 FVG (09/30 00:00), S1 |
| 177.507 | Round number, S2 |
| 177.328 | Asian range low, Liquidity: H1 swing low (SSL, 09/29 22:00) |
Technical signals
- Long-term trend (daily EMA200): Price below the EMA200 (182.119).
- Medium-term trend (EMA20 vs EMA50): EMA20 < EMA50: bearish medium-term structure.
- MACD momentum: MACD histogram positive and narrowing.
- Daily RSI(14): RSI 33.8: bearish momentum
- H1 structure (ICT): H1: mixed structure / range (range 178.014 – 178.555).
- Weekly open: Price below the weekly open (179.343).
- Yesterday's close within its range: Yesterday closed at 25% of its range (selling pressure).
Quantitative analysis
- Conditional probability (current regime): 51.4% up days (n=368) — Historical frequency of an up close the next day when price was in the same position relative to the EMA200 and the same RSI band.
- Wednesday seasonality: 50.9% up (6 years) — Historical bias by day of the week.
- 20-session momentum (z-score): -1.69 σ (-3.00%) — 20-session return normalised by volatility. Beyond ±2.5σ it is considered extreme (mean-reversion risk).
- Distance to EMA20 (in ATR): -1.39 ATR — More than 2.5 ATR away from the average signals overextension.
Automatic calculation from market data that may be delayed. Educational material: not a signal or a buy or sell recommendation.
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