GBP/USD analysis today GBPUSD
2026-09-30 12:13 NY · session 09/30
Today’s summary
Computed session bias: BEARISH, confidence 62% (technical -0.34, quantitative -0.12).
Expected range today ≈ 0.00622 (daily ATR14, 11th percentile of the last year → low volatility).
Price is in the PREMIUM (upper half of yesterday's range; in ICT methodology the zone associated with selling) zone.
Asian range: 1.32235 – 1.32471. Under the PO3 model it would be typical for London/NY to sweep one end of the Asian range (the high before a possible bearish expansion).
News to watch today: ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (USD, Medium); Core PCE Price Index m/m (USD, High); Final GDP q/q (USD, High); Final GDP Price Index q/q (USD, Medium); President Trump Speaks (USD, Medium).
See charts and entry plans in the tool →
Resistance
| 1.32578 | R1, PDH (prev. day high) |
| 1.32709 | Unfilled bearish H1 FVG (09/30 11:00) |
| 1.32856 | R2 |
| 1.33000 | Round number |
| 1.33101 | Liquidity: H1 swing high (BSL, 09/30 08:00) |
Support
| 1.32493 | Liquidity: H1 swing low (SSL, 09/28 09:00), Asian range high, Round number, Unfilled bullish H1 FVG (09/30 02:00), Liquidity: H1 swing high (BSL, 09/29 08:00) |
| 1.32363 | Liquidity: H1 swing high (BSL, 09/29 17:00), Unfilled bullish H1 FVG (09/30 01:00) |
| 1.32248 | Unfilled bullish H1 FVG (09/29 14:00), Asian range low, Liquidity: H1 swing low (SSL, 09/30 00:00), NY midnight open (ICT), Weekly open, Pivot |
| 1.32026 | Round number, S1, PDL (prev. day low), Liquidity: H1 swing low (SSL, 09/29 11:00), Prev. week low |
| 1.31743 | S2 |
Technical signals
- Long-term trend (daily EMA200): Price below the EMA200 (1.34124).
- Medium-term trend (EMA20 vs EMA50): EMA20 < EMA50: bearish medium-term structure.
- MACD momentum: MACD histogram negative and narrowing.
- Daily RSI(14): RSI 34.2: bearish momentum
- H1 structure (ICT): H1: higher highs and higher lows (range 1.32235 – 1.33101).
- Weekly open: Price above the weekly open (1.32268).
- Yesterday's close within its range: Yesterday closed at 45% of its range (indecision).
Quantitative analysis
- Conditional probability (current regime): 50.5% up days (n=463) — Historical frequency of an up close the next day when price was in the same position relative to the EMA200 and the same RSI band.
- Wednesday seasonality: 49.0% up (6 years) — Historical bias by day of the week.
- 20-session momentum (z-score): -0.94 σ (-1.69%) — 20-session return normalised by volatility. Beyond ±2.5σ it is considered extreme (mean-reversion risk).
- Distance to EMA20 (in ATR): -1.70 ATR — More than 2.5 ATR away from the average signals overextension.
Automatic calculation from market data that may be delayed. Educational material: not a signal or a buy or sell recommendation.
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