Bitcoin analysis today BTCUSD
2026-09-30 09:31 NY · session 09/30
Today’s summary
Computed session bias: BULLISH, confidence 71% (technical +0.54, quantitative +0.25).
Expected range today ≈ 2256 (daily ATR14, 46th percentile of the last year → normal volatility).
Price is in the PREMIUM (upper half of yesterday's range; in ICT methodology the zone associated with selling) zone.
Asian range: 83120 – 83821. Under the PO3 model it would be typical for London/NY to sweep one end of the Asian range (the low before a possible bullish expansion).
News to watch today: ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (USD, Medium); Core PCE Price Index m/m (USD, High); Final GDP q/q (USD, High); Final GDP Price Index q/q (USD, Medium); President Trump Speaks (USD, Medium).
See charts and entry plans in the tool →
Resistance
| 87,374 | Prev. week high |
| 90,000 | Round number |
Support
| 85,105 | Round number, R2 |
| 84,425 | R1, Liquidity: H1 swing high (BSL, 09/28 13:00), Unfilled bullish H1 FVG (09/30 08:00), PDH (prev. day high), Liquidity: H1 swing high (BSL, 09/29 09:00) |
| 83,821 | Asian range high, Liquidity: H1 swing high (BSL, 09/29 19:00) |
| 83,344 | Asian range low, NY midnight open (ICT), Weekly open, Unfilled bullish H1 FVG (09/30 05:00), Pivot |
| 82,796 | S1, Liquidity: H1 swing low (SSL, 09/28 21:00), PDL (prev. day low), Liquidity: H1 swing low (SSL, 09/29 12:00), Liquidity: H1 swing low (SSL, 09/30 03:00) |
Technical signals
- Long-term trend (daily EMA200): Price above the EMA200 (74420).
- Medium-term trend (EMA20 vs EMA50): EMA20 > EMA50: bullish medium-term structure.
- MACD momentum: MACD histogram negative and narrowing.
- Daily RSI(14): RSI 65.3: bullish momentum
- H1 structure (ICT): H1: bullish break of structure (BOS) above the last high 83821.
- Weekly open: Price above the weekly open (83325).
- Yesterday's close within its range: Yesterday closed at 24% of its range (selling pressure).
Quantitative analysis
- Conditional probability (current regime): 54.0% up days (n=806) — Historical frequency of an up close the next day when price was in the same position relative to the EMA200 and the same RSI band.
- Wednesday seasonality: 53.3% up (6 years) — Historical bias by day of the week.
- 20-session momentum (z-score): +1.00 σ (+11.00%) — 20-session return normalised by volatility. Beyond ±2.5σ it is considered extreme (mean-reversion risk).
- Distance to EMA20 (in ATR): +1.49 ATR — More than 2.5 ATR away from the average signals overextension.
Automatic calculation from market data that may be delayed. Educational material: not a signal or a buy or sell recommendation.
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