XRP analysis today XRPUSD
2026-09-30 11:20 NY · session 09/30
Today’s summary
Computed session bias: BULLISH, confidence 62% (technical +0.38, quantitative +0.07).
Expected range today ≈ 0.0873 (daily ATR14, 81th percentile of the last year → high volatility).
Price is in the DISCOUNT (lower half of yesterday's range; in ICT methodology the zone associated with buying) zone.
Asian range: 1.4851 – 1.5050. Under the PO3 model it would be typical for London/NY to sweep one end of the Asian range (the low before a possible bullish expansion).
News to watch today: ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (USD, Medium); Core PCE Price Index m/m (USD, High); Final GDP q/q (USD, High); Final GDP Price Index q/q (USD, Medium); President Trump Speaks (USD, Medium).
See charts and entry plans in the tool →
Resistance
| 1.5047 | Round number, Liquidity: H1 swing high (BSL, 09/28 20:00), Asian range high, Unfilled bearish H1 FVG (09/30 10:00), Pivot |
| 1.5317 | Liquidity: H1 swing high (BSL, 09/28 09:00) |
| 1.5441 | R1 |
| 1.5600 | PDH (prev. day high), Liquidity: H1 swing high (BSL, 09/29 10:00) |
| 1.5976 | R2, Round number |
Support
| 1.4848 | PDL (prev. day low), Liquidity: H1 swing low (SSL, 09/29 13:00), Asian range low, Liquidity: H1 swing low (SSL, 09/29 20:00), Liquidity: H1 swing low (SSL, 09/30 03:00), Weekly open, NY midnight open (ICT) |
| 1.4579 | S1 |
| 1.4184 | Prev. week low, S2 |
| 1.4000 | Round number |
| 1.3000 | Round number |
Technical signals
- Long-term trend (daily EMA200): Price above the EMA200 (1.3719).
- Medium-term trend (EMA20 vs EMA50): EMA20 > EMA50: bullish medium-term structure.
- MACD momentum: MACD histogram negative and widening.
- Daily RSI(14): RSI 55.9: bullish momentum
- H1 structure (ICT): H1: higher highs and higher lows (range 1.4891 – 1.5600).
- Weekly open: Price above the weekly open (1.4921).
- Yesterday's close within its range: Yesterday closed at 22% of its range (selling pressure).
Quantitative analysis
- Conditional probability (current regime): 48.3% up days (n=464) — Historical frequency of an up close the next day when price was in the same position relative to the EMA200 and the same RSI band.
- Wednesday seasonality: 50.9% up (6 years) — Historical bias by day of the week.
- 20-session momentum (z-score): +0.71 σ (+11.53%) — 20-session return normalised by volatility. Beyond ±2.5σ it is considered extreme (mean-reversion risk).
- Distance to EMA20 (in ATR): +0.43 ATR — More than 2.5 ATR away from the average signals overextension.
Automatic calculation from market data that may be delayed. Educational material: not a signal or a buy or sell recommendation.
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