Ethereum analysis today ETHUSD
2026-09-30 11:20 NY · session 09/30
Today’s summary
Computed session bias: BULLISH, confidence 61% (technical +0.29, quantitative +0.14).
Expected range today ≈ 94.29 (daily ATR14, 55th percentile of the last year → normal volatility).
Price is in the DISCOUNT (lower half of yesterday's range; in ICT methodology the zone associated with buying) zone.
Asian range: 2664.82 – 2687.39. Under the PO3 model it would be typical for London/NY to sweep one end of the Asian range (the low before a possible bullish expansion).
News to watch today: ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (USD, Medium); Core PCE Price Index m/m (USD, High); Final GDP q/q (USD, High); Final GDP Price Index q/q (USD, Medium); President Trump Speaks (USD, Medium).
See charts and entry plans in the tool →
Resistance
| 2,691.57 | Unfilled bearish H1 FVG (09/30 10:00), Asian range high, Pivot, Liquidity: H1 swing high (BSL, 09/28 20:00), Round number |
| 2,722.65 | Liquidity: H1 swing high (BSL, 09/28 13:00), R1 |
| 2,745.40 | PDH (prev. day high), Liquidity: H1 swing high (BSL, 09/29 08:00) |
| 2,781.25 | R2 |
| 2,803.21 | Round number, Prev. week high |
Support
| 2,668.97 | Liquidity: H1 swing low (SSL, 09/29 11:00), NY midnight open (ICT) |
| 2,655.78 | Liquidity: H1 swing low (SSL, 09/28 22:00), Weekly open, PDL (prev. day low), Liquidity: H1 swing low (SSL, 09/30 02:00), Asian range low |
| 2,631.62 | Prev. week low, S1 |
| 2,599.64 | S2, Round number |
| 2,500.00 | Round number |
Technical signals
- Long-term trend (daily EMA200): Price above the EMA200 (2266.47).
- Medium-term trend (EMA20 vs EMA50): EMA20 > EMA50: bullish medium-term structure.
- MACD momentum: MACD histogram negative and widening.
- Daily RSI(14): RSI 60.8: bullish momentum
- H1 structure (ICT): H1: mixed structure / range (range 2656.51 – 2737.44).
- Weekly open: Price above the weekly open (2652.18).
- Yesterday's close within its range: Yesterday closed at 18% of its range (selling pressure).
Quantitative analysis
- Conditional probability (current regime): 52.9% up days (n=597) — Historical frequency of an up close the next day when price was in the same position relative to the EMA200 and the same RSI band.
- Wednesday seasonality: 50.4% up (6 years) — Historical bias by day of the week.
- 20-session momentum (z-score): +0.63 σ (+9.27%) — 20-session return normalised by volatility. Beyond ±2.5σ it is considered extreme (mean-reversion risk).
- Distance to EMA20 (in ATR): +0.64 ATR — More than 2.5 ATR away from the average signals overextension.
Automatic calculation from market data that may be delayed. Educational material: not a signal or a buy or sell recommendation.
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