EUR/USD analysis today EURUSD
2026-09-30 11:20 NY · session 09/30
Today’s summary
Computed session bias: BEARISH, confidence 65% (technical -0.35, quantitative -0.24).
Expected range today ≈ 0.00475 (daily ATR14, 8th percentile of the last year → low volatility).
Price is in the PREMIUM (upper half of yesterday's range; in ICT methodology the zone associated with selling) zone.
Asian range: 1.13327 – 1.13482. Under the PO3 model it would be typical for London/NY to sweep one end of the Asian range (the high before a possible bearish expansion).
News to watch today: German Prelim CPI m/m (EUR, Medium); ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (USD, Medium); Core PCE Price Index m/m (USD, High); Final GDP q/q (USD, High); Final GDP Price Index q/q (USD, Medium).
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Resistance
| 1.13623 | Liquidity: H1 swing high (BSL, 09/29 08:00), Prev. week low |
| 1.13783 | R1, PDH (prev. day high), Weekly open |
| 1.13931 | Liquidity: H1 swing high (BSL, 09/28 12:00), Unfilled bearish H1 FVG (09/25 16:00) |
| 1.14000 | Round number |
| 1.14074 | R2 |
Support
| 1.13473 | Unfilled bullish H1 FVG (09/30 01:00), Pivot, Asian range high, Liquidity: H1 swing high (BSL, 09/29 17:00), Round number |
| 1.13329 | Unfilled bullish H1 FVG (09/29 14:00), Asian range low, Liquidity: H1 swing low (SSL, 09/30 00:00), NY midnight open (ICT) |
| 1.13170 | S1, PDL (prev. day low), Liquidity: H1 swing low (SSL, 09/29 12:00), Liquidity: H1 swing low (SSL, 09/29 13:00) |
| 1.13000 | Round number |
| 1.12864 | S2 |
Technical signals
- Long-term trend (daily EMA200): Price below the EMA200 (1.15556).
- Medium-term trend (EMA20 vs EMA50): EMA20 < EMA50: bearish medium-term structure.
- MACD momentum: MACD histogram negative and narrowing.
- Daily RSI(14): RSI 27.5: oversold, possible bounce
- H1 structure (ICT): H1: higher highs and higher lows (range 1.13327 – 1.13817).
- Weekly open: Price below the weekly open (1.13804).
- Yesterday's close within its range: Yesterday closed at 47% of its range (indecision).
Quantitative analysis
- Conditional probability (current regime): 48.5% up days (n=99) — Historical frequency of an up close the next day when price was in the same position relative to the EMA200 and the same RSI band.
- Wednesday seasonality: 47.3% up (6 years) — Historical bias by day of the week.
- 20-session momentum (z-score): -1.32 σ (-2.02%) — 20-session return normalised by volatility. Beyond ±2.5σ it is considered extreme (mean-reversion risk).
- Distance to EMA20 (in ATR): -2.31 ATR — More than 2.5 ATR away from the average signals overextension.
Automatic calculation from market data that may be delayed. Educational material: not a signal or a buy or sell recommendation.
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