GBP/JPY analysis today GBPJPY
2026-09-30 11:24 NY · session 09/30
Today’s summary
Computed session bias: NEUTRAL / RANGE, confidence 59% (technical -0.26, quantitative -0.08).
Expected range today ≈ 1.492 (daily ATR14, 52th percentile of the last year → normal volatility).
Price is in the PREMIUM (upper half of yesterday's range; in ICT methodology the zone associated with selling) zone.
Asian range: 206.872 – 208.292. Under the PO3 model it would be typical for London/NY to sweep one end of the Asian range (either extreme before the expansion).
News to watch today: BOE Gov Bailey Speaks (GBP, Medium).
See charts and entry plans in the tool →
Resistance
| 208.778 | PDH (prev. day high), Liquidity: H1 swing high (BSL, 09/28 21:00), Liquidity: H1 swing high (BSL, 09/30 07:00) |
| 209.045 | Round number, R2 |
| 209.488 | Unfilled bearish H1 FVG (09/24 22:00), Round number |
| 210.893 | Prev. week high |
Support
| 208.504 | Weekly open, Round number, R1 |
| 208.259 | Pivot, Asian range high, Liquidity: H1 swing high (BSL, 09/29 19:00) |
| 207.978 | PDL (prev. day low), Prev. week low, Round number, Liquidity: H1 swing low (SSL, 09/29 03:00) |
| 207.634 | Unfilled bullish H1 FVG (09/30 00:00), S1, Liquidity: H1 swing low (SSL, 09/28 04:00) |
| 207.384 | S2, NY midnight open (ICT) |
Technical signals
- Long-term trend (daily EMA200): Price below the EMA200 (211.407).
- Medium-term trend (EMA20 vs EMA50): EMA20 < EMA50: bearish medium-term structure.
- MACD momentum: MACD histogram positive and widening.
- Daily RSI(14): RSI 40.2: bearish momentum
- H1 structure (ICT): H1: mixed structure / range (range 206.872 – 208.820).
- Weekly open: Price above the weekly open (208.487).
- Yesterday's close within its range: Yesterday closed at 11% of its range (selling pressure).
Quantitative analysis
- Conditional probability (current regime): 52.3% up days (n=306) — Historical frequency of an up close the next day when price was in the same position relative to the EMA200 and the same RSI band.
- Wednesday seasonality: 52.0% up (6 years) — Historical bias by day of the week.
- 20-session momentum (z-score): -1.26 σ (-2.44%) — 20-session return normalised by volatility. Beyond ±2.5σ it is considered extreme (mean-reversion risk).
- Distance to EMA20 (in ATR): -0.80 ATR — More than 2.5 ATR away from the average signals overextension.
Automatic calculation from market data that may be delayed. Educational material: not a signal or a buy or sell recommendation.
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