AUD/USD analysis today AUDUSD
2026-09-30 09:31 NY · session 09/30
Today’s summary
Computed session bias: BEARISH, confidence 69% (technical -0.72, quantitative +0.09).
Expected range today ≈ 0.00413 (daily ATR14, 9th percentile of the last year → low volatility).
Price is in the DISCOUNT (lower half of yesterday's range; in ICT methodology the zone associated with buying) zone.
Asian range: 0.69633 – 0.69969. Under the PO3 model it would be typical for London/NY to sweep one end of the Asian range (the high before a possible bearish expansion).
News to watch today: ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (USD, Medium); Core PCE Price Index m/m (USD, High); Final GDP q/q (USD, High); Final GDP Price Index q/q (USD, Medium); President Trump Speaks (USD, Medium).
See charts and entry plans in the tool →
Resistance
| 0.69701 | PDL (prev. day low), Liquidity: H1 swing low (SSL, 09/29 12:00), NY midnight open (ICT) |
| 0.69832 | Liquidity: H1 swing low (SSL, 09/29 05:00), Liquidity: H1 swing high (BSL, 09/30 03:00) |
| 0.69975 | Pivot, Asian range high, Liquidity: H1 swing high (BSL, 09/29 21:00), Round number |
| 0.70071 | Unfilled bearish H1 FVG (09/29 01:00), Prev. week low, Liquidity: H1 swing high (BSL, 09/29 08:00) |
| 0.70131 | Weekly open |
Support
| 0.69639 | Asian range low, Liquidity: H1 swing low (SSL, 09/29 21:00), S1 |
| 0.69500 | Round number |
| 0.69379 | S2 |
| 0.69000 | Round number |
Technical signals
- Long-term trend (daily EMA200): Price below the EMA200 (0.69855).
- Medium-term trend (EMA20 vs EMA50): EMA20 < EMA50: bearish medium-term structure.
- MACD momentum: MACD histogram negative and widening.
- Daily RSI(14): RSI 28.6: bearish momentum
- H1 structure (ICT): H1: lower highs and lower lows (range 0.69633 – 0.69837).
- Weekly open: Price below the weekly open (0.70131).
- Yesterday's close within its range: Yesterday closed at 39% of its range (indecision).
Quantitative analysis
- Conditional probability (current regime): 56.5% up days (n=85) — Historical frequency of an up close the next day when price was in the same position relative to the EMA200 and the same RSI band.
- Wednesday seasonality: 49.2% up (6 years) — Historical bias by day of the week.
- 20-session momentum (z-score): -1.22 σ (-2.88%) — 20-session return normalised by volatility. Beyond ±2.5σ it is considered extreme (mean-reversion risk).
- Distance to EMA20 (in ATR): -2.76 ATR — More than 2.5 ATR away from the average signals overextension.
Automatic calculation from market data that may be delayed. Educational material: not a signal or a buy or sell recommendation.
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